Freight Market 2025, Data Trends & Expert Forecasts

Jerry Critchfield – States Logistics Services, Inc. Vice President of Transportation

Are the predictions that the freight recession is over accurate, or are the forecasts still a bit uncertain?

For the past few months, nearly every industry news outlet and major trucking company has suggested that 2025 will be a positive year for the transportation sector. Examining the hard data from DAT, ACT, and Cass reveals that rates have stabilized on most routes and even increased in certain regions. Additionally, tender rejections are on the rise. The top five trucking companies all anticipate that rates will rise and volumes will increase in Q3 and Q4. Considering the destructive fires in Southern California and the supply needs for rebuilding, it’s hard to dispute this analysis.

However, there are still many unknowns. With President Trump’s election and the potential for tariffs impacting trade—especially with China, Canada, and Mexico—it’s uncertain how this will affect freight demand. Although reshoring manufacturing has begun and will play a significant role in President Trump’s economic plan, meaningful change will take several years. Furthermore, potential delays in approving federal funding for California pose additional challenges for a swift freight recovery.

While I agree with the data indicating that transportation and logistics activity will steadily increase in 2025, we must remember that in January 2024, many experts predicted a great year, only to be disappointed. We can all hope for a profitable 2025 but acknowledge that many factors are outside of our control.

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